The United States will be among the first countries to emerge from the global economic downturn, a factor in the recent rally of the U.S. dollar, panelists said at an Oct. 30 seminar by the Southern Center for International Studies.
 
Investors are buying the dollar in a "flight to quality" said Jeff Baker, senior vice president of Atlanta-based Global Payments Inc., which processes payments between businesses worldwide.
 
"I don't know where the bottom is," said Mr. Baker. But he predicted, "We will more than likely be the first to come out of the recession."
 
With the dollar strengthening, there have been some predictions that it could soon be at parity with the euro, Mr. Baker said. The euro traded Oct. 30 at $1.29. It has previously traded as high as $1.60. The Canadian dollar traded at 83 cents on the dollar Oct. 30. It has traded as high as $1.10.
 
"We know it (the downturn) is a short-term phenomenon," said Mr. Baker. "We know it will get better."
 
The U.S. recovery will be helped by America's "entrepreneurial spirit," said S. Tamer Cavusgil, director of the Institute of International Business at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business.
 
'You have an economy here that is most conducive to business startups," he said.
 
Ransom James, director of corporate investment for Arcapita Inc., a global private equity investment firm with offices in Atlanta, said that while "it's quite gloomy out there," there are hopeful signs.
 
While there has been a recession in the freight business, a bellwether of a recession,  trucking company stocks have been up against the Dow all year, said Mr. James. Trey Loughran, senior vice president of corporate development for Atlanta-based Equifax Inc. predicted "the next 12 months will be difficult."
 
Credit card companies and owners of commercial real estate might be next in line for a fall, he predicted.
 
Despite all the problems of recent months, the world is still full of opportunities to make money, the panelists said.
 
 Although oil prices have plummeted recently, they are still higher than when Mr. James joined Arcapita in 2004, he said. Arcapita is headquartered in the oil-rich country of Bahrain.
 
Oil is  "still plenty high enough for that region to have plenty of excess capital," said Mr. James.
 
Both Mr. Loughran of Equifax and Mr. Baker of Global Payments are bullish on Russia.
 
Although much of the wealth in Russia is concentrated in industries such as oil, "It is trickling down," said Mr. Baker.
 
He recalled recently seeing a McDonald's in Russia that was packed with customers. In Russia's horrendous traffic jams, he sees more and more Fords and Toyotas, signaling a growing middle class.
 
For companies looking to expand overseas, the size of the middle class is a key factor to consider, said Mr. Cavusgil of Georgia State.
 
Companies should look at "the size and rate of growth of the middle class," said Mr. Cavusgil. That can sometimes be an even better indicator of an economy's strength than gross domestic product, he said.  

A growing middle class in Russia means that the population would never tolerate a return to full communism,  Mr. Baker said.
 
"Once you give people a piece of candy you can't take it back, not without severe consequences," he said.
 
"I would double or triple my investment in Russia," said Mr. Loughran.  "I think Russia is a huge opportunity. The opportunity for growth is tremendous."

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