Book: The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization
Author: Peter Zeihan
Reviewed by: Al Hodge, founder of Hodge Consulting Services and a 40-year economic development veteran
Peter Zeihan’s book is a The End of the World Is Just the Beginning covers a lot of territory, both figuratively and literally, spanning the historical sweep of global interconnectivity in a work I believe is a must-read for Global Atlanta readers.
Zeihan is at his best when swinging between historical extremes, describing how the systems that link us all together developed from their primitive forms into modes we all take for granted.
Take transportation: The author shows how we went from pre-Stone Age boats to the sailing ships threatened by pirates to the container vessels powered by massive engines and backed by global insurers.
Or currency: Zeihan exposes problems with both shells and crypto, each a product of their particular time and cultural moment.
In so many ways, the The End of the World… artfully shows how the met needs we see as given in modern life intersect with the forces of geology, geography, demographics, public policy, trade and economic development.
But as the title suggests, it’s also a cautionary tale that “free-trade era of the post-World War II period” — or more simply put, this most recent U.S.-led era of globalization — is being buffeted on many sides.
During the last 10 years, Zeihan argues that very different U.S. presidents have reduced American engagement in world affairs, withholding funds and questioning institutions, all while population growth, technological development and conflict have had wide-ranging consequences for everyone everywhere. He delves into the balance between independence and self-sufficiency, a trend that seems to be on the rise amid supply-chain concerns, and interdependence, which he argues will be necessary to an extent.
But there are more than enough challenges to go around for global integration. Major issues include: Aging populations, manufacturing and supply chain interruptions and limited access to essential materials, especially in the world’s endeavor to transition to green energy.
Zeihan includes a special section about currency and unsustainable fiscal spending and policies among major countries. He describes the unintended consequences of otherwise well-intentioned leaders on both ends of the political spectrum.
On this point, Zeihan remains objective – he doesn’t bring his own political preferences to his analyses. He pulls no punches in the quest to speak even unpopular truths. He shares facts and insights about what we need to know, and he calls it like it is. This is refreshing and instructive at a time when the norm is extreme partisanship.
He also rates countries on their potential for future global clout based on where trends are heading, weight things like mineral wealth, trade policy, military capacity and agricultural output — think trees and food— and identifies each region and numerous countries as leaders, also-rans and losers in each category.
I am keenly interested in his Japan and South Korea histories and outlooks because of their status as top investors and employers in Georgia, along with Georgia-based investments there. Japan’s naval might, electronics and other research and development investments, and Korea’s investment in electric vehicles and components in our state bode well for our continued mutual interests.
Not all is rosy with those two countries nor anywhere else, including the world’s two largest economies.
A variety of countries and regions, large and small, seem poised to benefit from a world in which U.S. dominance fades and China fails to reach what many had seen as its inevitable rise to the top.
Some examples of winners include: Nigeria due to population size, young demographics, and ample local energy production looks best positioned for sub-Saharan Africa.
In Southeast Asia, he praises Singapore for ultra-high tech and banking; Vietnam and Indonesia for low end labor; Indonesia and Malaysia for very rapid urbanization, Myanmar and New Guinea for mineral wealth, plus proximity to mineral-rich and population-sparse of Australia.
Asia seems to be on the leading edge, Zeihan writes:
Combine Japanese tech and military strength and wealth, with India and Southeast Asia’s manufacturing potential and demographic and industrial inputs, and you have one of the great alliances of the 21st century.
Additionally, he is bullish on some European and African countries, as well as Colombia in South America.
Most able to adapt, however, is the United States, with its focus on innovation and strong relationships and alliances with the countries driving the clean-energy transition and the automotive sector, which accounts for a huge proportion of global trade. Georgia, in this regard, is poised to benefit from the new balance of power in the world.
Adding this book to your list of reference resources is imperative — this review is only the beginning!
Read more reviews from Al Hodge:
Books 2021: How the U.S. and Georgia Are Innovating to Gain Global Advantage
Books 2020: Using Innovation to Tap Post-Corona Opportunities
Books 2019: Embracing Possibilities of the AI Competition With China
Editor’s notes: Global Atlanta will receive a 10 percent commission on any purchase of this book through the links on this page.
Each year, Global Atlanta asks influential readers and community leaders to review the most impactful book they read during the course of the year. This endeavor has continued annually since 2010.
See last year’s full list of books on BookShop here, and all 2021 reader picks here.
All books were chosen and reviews written independently, with only mild editing from our staff.