Georgia‘s slowing export growth is indicative of a sluggish global economy that will dampen the state’s job creation figures for the rest of the year, according to a Georgia State University economic forecaster.
“Corporations are battling increasing global headwinds from a recessionary Europe, an unstable Middle East and a stalled China, among others,” said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the university’s Economic Forecasting Center, in a news release summarizing his quarterly report May 22.
He cited Delta Air Lines Inc. as a “bellwether,” noting that the airline said April 24 that its international revenues declined by 3 percent in the most recent quarter.
The state’s export growth also slowed to 3.2 percent in 2012, down from 20.1 percent in 2011, and it hasn’t picked up yet this year.
In addition to global challenges, Georgia’s Fortune 500 firms face national headwinds, including lackluster consumer spending with the expiration of the 2 percent payroll tax and declining morale related to the effects of the government sequester.
Georgia generated 68,400 new jobs in 2012, signifying recovery, but Dr. Dhawan projected a mild slowdown to 63,300 jobs created in 2013, with the hospitality, retail, manufacturing and transportation sectors looking like they’ll be hardest-hit.
The good news is that the global economy will begin to pick back up in 2014, led by a recovery in China and the fact that Congress will reach a budget deal late this year, giving companies more certainty about their tax rates for the next two years, Dr. Dhawan said.
In metro Atlanta, home prices are on the rise as inventory is snapped up. That reflects the national housing situation, which should continue to improve as more young people enter the housing market, he said.
For more, visit http://robinson.gsu.edu/efc/index.html.