Russia‘s offer to sell Iran S300 surface-to-air missiles and the United States‘ sending the U.S. 173rd Airborne Brigade to the Ukraine may not be an indication that a new Cold War is at hand.
Yet the two super nuclear powers are participating in “an inexorable movement to higher levels of tension,” according to David J. Firestein of the EastWest Institute‘s Washington center.
A former U.S. diplomat to China and Russia, Mr. Firestein was introduced at the Kiwanis Club of Atlanta‘s weekly luncheon Tuesday, April 21, by Joel Cowan, a Kiwanian and board member of the institute.
“Russia’s annexation of Crimea has sent a chill down the back of Europe and the U.S.,” he said, citing the close calls between U.S. and Russian jets flying within 20 feet of each other over the Ukraine.
While Russia has accused the U.S. of invading other countries with its “boots on the ground” actions, Mr. Firestein said there was a great difference between Russia’s taking over of the Crimea and U.S. policies that certainly haven’t redrawn the world map “to create a 51st state.”
Even though he is involved in the institute’s trust-building initiative, which seeks to foster joint actions among China, Russia, and the U.S., he pointed to the Crimean annexation as the intractable issue preventing a normalization of relations.
And even if Russia pulls back from the eastern Ukraine where it threatens to create a corridor to Crimea, this action alone, he said, won’t resolve its conflict with the U.S. and other Western nations.
“Eighteen months ago few people expected to see the degeneration of the U.S.-Russia relationship,” he added. He then described three myths about the Ukraine underlying its precarious situation.
While the West said it would be unacceptable for Russia to annex Crimea, this assertion turned out to be the first myth because it hasn’t been able to counteract the aggression, he said.
Since the Ukraine can only do what Russia tells it to do, he said, the notion that it is a sovereign state is the second myth. And thirdly whatever protection the Ukraine’s status as a member of the United Nations might be assumed, its membership is of no assistance in repelling the Russian aggression.
The best scenario that he can envision at the moment, he said, is a continuation of the current situation. The worst would be further Russian expansion.
The best, of which he said there is little likelihood, is to abide by the contents of the Minsk Agreements of September 2014 and February 2015 to abide by a cease fire, take out its heavy weapons out of the eastern Ukraine and pull out entirely.
When asked if the U.S. has been taking too much of a backseat in resolving the crisis, he adopted a somewhat surprising conciliatory tone. “We have little at risk,” he said in comparison to others such as Germany. U.S. trade with Russia amounts to some $35 billion in comparison to $600 billion with China.
He also mentioned a verbal exchange during which former Secretary of State James A. Baker Jr. allegedly said in 1990 that NATO would not be expanded beyond its former 16 members. NATO currently has 28 members.
In no way was he defending Russian actions; rather he was just revealing the enormous gap that has to be bridged in reaching some sort of mutual understanding.
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